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Řepiště vs Havířov — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Řepiště
Řepiště
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Havířov
Havířov
10/5/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 10Řepiště trava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Řepiště31%
×Draw22%
Havířov48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Řepiště
1.57
Havířov
1.99

Havířov creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Řepiště
1.53
Havířov
2.01

allows per match

Řepiště
1.97
Havířov
1.61

finishing

Řepiště+0.00on par
Havířov+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Řepiště ↓

Havířov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Řepiště or draw
52%
Řepiště or Havířov
78%
Draw or Havířov
69%

Winning margin

Řepiště wins by 2+
14%
Havířov wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Řepiště 1+ goals
79%
Řepiště 2+ goals
46%
Řepiště 3+ goals
21%
Havířov 1+ goals
86%
Havířov 2+ goals
59%
Havířov 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Řepiště (draw refunded)
39%
Havířov (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Řepiště at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Havířov away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Řepiště attack 1.53 + Havířov defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.57

Havířov attack 2.01 + Řepiště defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Řepiště scores more
31%
level
22%
Havířov scores more
48%

Havířov at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Havířov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Řepiště vs Havířov

Havířov beat Řepiště 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie F on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at Řepiště trava in Řepiště.