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Havířov vs Řepiště — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Havířov
Havířov
FT
8 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Řepiště
Řepiště
5/11/20254. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 25Stadion Dukla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Havířov70%
×Draw16%
Řepiště13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Havířov
2.72
Řepiště
1.12

Havířov creates 143% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 30 away

creates per match

Havířov
2.38
Řepiště
0.97

allows per match

Havířov
1.27
Řepiště
3.07

finishing

Havířov+0.00on par
Řepiště+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Havířov ↓

Řepiště →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Havířov or draw
87%
Havířov or Řepiště
84%
Draw or Řepiště
30%

Winning margin

Havířov wins by 2+
49%
Řepiště wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Havířov 1+ goals
93%
Havířov 2+ goals
75%
Havířov 3+ goals
50%
Řepiště 1+ goals
67%
Řepiště 2+ goals
31%
Řepiště 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Havířov (draw refunded)
84%
Řepiště (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Havířov at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.27 · 77 matches

Řepiště away — creates 0.97, concedes 3.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Havířov attack 2.38 + Řepiště defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.72

Řepiště attack 0.97 + Havířov defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Havířov scores more
70%
level
16%
Řepiště scores more
13%

Havířov at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Havířov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Havířov 8–0 Řepiště

Havířov beat Řepiště 8-0 in 4. liga - Divizie F on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Dukla in Havířov.