Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Řepiště vs Beskyd Frenštát — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Řepiště
Řepiště
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
11/11/20234. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 15Řepiště trava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Řepiště46%
×Draw22%
Beskyd Frenštát32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Řepiště
1.95
Beskyd Frenštát
1.60

Řepiště creates 22% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Řepiště
1.53
Beskyd Frenštát
1.23

allows per match

Řepiště
1.97
Beskyd Frenštát
2.37

finishing

Řepiště+0.00on par
Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Řepiště ↓

Beskyd Frenštát →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Řepiště or draw
68%
Řepiště or Beskyd Frenštát
78%
Draw or Beskyd Frenštát
54%

Winning margin

Řepiště wins by 2+
26%
Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Řepiště 1+ goals
86%
Řepiště 2+ goals
58%
Řepiště 3+ goals
31%
Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
80%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
47%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Řepiště (draw refunded)
59%
Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Řepiště at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Beskyd Frenštát away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.37 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Řepiště attack 1.53 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.95

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.23 + Řepiště defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Řepiště scores more
46%
level
22%
Beskyd Frenštát scores more
32%

Řepiště at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Řepiště will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Řepiště vs Beskyd Frenštát

Beskyd Frenštát beat Řepiště 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie F on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Řepiště trava in Řepiště.