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Beskyd Frenštát vs Řepiště — 4. liga - Divizie F 2020

Beskyd Frenštát
Beskyd Frenštát
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Řepiště
Řepiště
6/15/20244. liga - Divizie F4. liga - Divizie F · Division F - 30Stadion Na Nivách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beskyd Frenštát58%
×Draw20%
Řepiště22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beskyd Frenštát
2.33
Řepiště
1.39

Beskyd Frenštát creates 68% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 30 away

creates per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.59
Řepiště
0.97

allows per match

Beskyd Frenštát
1.80
Řepiště
3.07

finishing

Beskyd Frenštát+0.00on par
Řepiště+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beskyd Frenštát ↓

Řepiště →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Beskyd Frenštát or draw
78%
Beskyd Frenštát or Řepiště
80%
Draw or Řepiště
42%

Winning margin

Beskyd Frenštát wins by 2+
37%
Řepiště wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Beskyd Frenštát 1+ goals
90%
Beskyd Frenštát 2+ goals
67%
Beskyd Frenštát 3+ goals
41%
Řepiště 1+ goals
75%
Řepiště 2+ goals
40%
Řepiště 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Beskyd Frenštát (draw refunded)
72%
Řepiště (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beskyd Frenštát at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 61 matches

Řepiště away — creates 0.97, concedes 3.07 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beskyd Frenštát attack 1.59 + Řepiště defence 3.07 → ÷2 → 2.33

Řepiště attack 0.97 + Beskyd Frenštát defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Beskyd Frenštát scores more
58%
level
20%
Řepiště scores more
22%

Beskyd Frenštát at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Beskyd Frenštát will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie F: Beskyd Frenštát 4–2 Řepiště

Beskyd Frenštát beat Řepiště 4-2 in 4. liga - Divizie F on June 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Na Nivách in Frenštát pod Radhoštěm.