Rentistas 0–1 Boston River: Result & Stats

Rentistas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Boston River

E. Rodríguez 90+3'

5/8/2022

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 11Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rentistas35%

×Draw29%

Boston River37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RentistasExpected goals in this matchBoston River

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.15

Rentistas

1.11

Boston River

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 82 away

0.96

creates per match

1.02

1.27

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Rentistas

0.96

Boston River

1.02

allows per match

Rentistas

1.27

Boston River

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rentistas+0.00on par

Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rentistas ↓

Boston River →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rentistas or draw

63%

Rentistas or Boston River

71%

Draw or Boston River

65%

Winning margin

Rentistas wins by 2+

14%

Boston River wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rentistas 1+ goals

67%

Rentistas 2+ goals

30%

Rentistas 3+ goals

10%

Boston River 1+ goals

68%

Boston River 2+ goals

32%

Boston River 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rentistas (draw refunded)

49%

Boston River (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rentistas at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rentistas attack 0.96 + Boston River defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.11

Boston River attack 1.02 + Rentistas defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rentistas scores more

35%

level

29%

Boston River scores more

37%

Boston River at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

Alan Sebastian Acevedo Moreira

33'

36'

38'

46'

46'

46'

E. Rodríguez← Agustín Rodríguez

69'

M. Torres← S. Corbo

73'

F. Pérez← Juninho Rocha

78'

L. Acevedo← J. Varela

79'

L. Guichón← N. Acosta

80'

81'

81'

86'

90+3'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

RentistasBoston

Overview

40%Possession60%

3Total Shots7

3Corners8

12Fouls9

Shots

3Total Shots7

2Off Target2

1Blocked1

Passing

40%Possession60%

Discipline

12Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

Primera División - Apertura: Rentistas 0–1 Boston River

Boston River beat Rentistas 1-0 in Primera División - Apertura on May 8, 2022.

Goals: E. Rodríguez (90+3').

Boston River controlled possession (60%) and registered 7 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas in Las Piedras.

Rentistas vs Boston River — Primera División - Apertura 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Primera División - Apertura: Rentistas 0–1 Boston River