Boston River 1–2 Rentistas: Result & Stats

Boston River

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Rentistas

R. Bentancourt 36'

E. Villar 66'

J. Sosa 31'

5/22/2021

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 2Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Boston River37%

×Draw27%

Rentistas36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boston RiverExpected goals in this matchRentistas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Boston River

1.27

Rentistas

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 27 away

1.18

creates per match

1.22

1.29

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Boston River

1.18

Rentistas

1.22

allows per match

Boston River

1.29

Rentistas

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par

Rentistas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Rentistas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Boston River or draw

64%

Boston River or Rentistas

73%

Draw or Rentistas

63%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+

16%

Rentistas wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals

72%

Boston River 2+ goals

36%

Boston River 3+ goals

14%

Rentistas 1+ goals

71%

Rentistas 2+ goals

36%

Rentistas 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)

51%

Rentistas (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Rentistas away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + Rentistas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Rentistas attack 1.22 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Boston River scores more

37%

level

27%

Rentistas scores more

36%

Boston River at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Boston River will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

F. Labandeira

17'

M. Gonzalez

31'

J. Sosa

32'

I. Tejeria

36'

40'

41'

63'

64'

64'

S. Rodríguez← F. Peraza

66'

E. Villar

69'

F. Rodríguez← R. Bentancourt

69'

D. Romero← N. Freitas

72'

M. Gonzalez

72'

M. Gonzalez

75'

J. Moreira← F. Labandeira

75'

J. Varela← E. Villar

75'

M. Ferreira← J. Urretaviscaya

88'

A. Rodales← F. Pérez

Possession

Shots

Statistics

BostonRentistas

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots12

6Corners8

19Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots12

5On Target7

7Off Target5

Passing

55%Possession45%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1