Renova 0–1 Vardar Skopje: Result & Stats

Renova

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Vardar Skopje

D. Ibishi 65'

9/1/2019

First League · Round 4Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Renova38%

×Draw29%

Vardar Skopje34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RenovaExpected goals in this matchVardar Skopje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.07

Renova

1.15

Vardar Skopje

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 84 away

1.19

creates per match

1.10

1.04

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Renova

1.19

Vardar Skopje

1.10

allows per match

Renova

1.04

Vardar Skopje

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renova+0.00on par

Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renova ↓

Vardar Skopje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Renova or draw

66%

Renova or Vardar Skopje

71%

Draw or Vardar Skopje

62%

Winning margin

Renova wins by 2+

16%

Vardar Skopje wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Renova 1+ goals

68%

Renova 2+ goals

32%

Renova 3+ goals

11%

Vardar Skopje 1+ goals

66%

Vardar Skopje 2+ goals

29%

Vardar Skopje 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Renova (draw refunded)

53%

Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renova at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.11 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renova attack 1.19 + Vardar Skopje defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Vardar Skopje attack 1.10 + Renova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Renova scores more

38%

level

29%

Vardar Skopje scores more

34%

Renova at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Renova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

46'

I. Ademi← A. Taipi

57'

61'

64'

D. Ibishi← D. Avramovski

64'

M. Cvetanoski← A. Adem

65'

D. Ibishi

74'

82'

83'

L. Skenderi← B. Sadiki

90'

Renova

Vardar

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Islami

46'▲I. Ademi←▼A. Taipi

83'▲L. Skenderi←▼B. Sadiki

Renova substitutes

AdemiSkenderi

Manager: A. Vasoski

64'▲D. Ibishi←▼D. Avramovski

64'▲M. Cvetanoski←▼A. Adem

Vardar Skopje substitutes

IbishiCvetanoski

First League: Renova 0–1 Vardar Skopje

Vardar Skopje beat Renova 1-0 in First League on September 1, 2019.

Goals: D. Ibishi (65').

The match was played at Ecolog Arena in Tetovo.

Renova vs Vardar Skopje — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Renova 0–1 Vardar Skopje