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Renova vs Shkendija — First League 2019

Renova
Renova
CANC
00:00
Shkendija
Shkendija
3/15/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 24Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Renova33%
×Draw27%
Shkendija40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renova
1.16
Shkendija
1.30

Shkendija creates 12% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 105 away

creates per match

Renova
1.34
Shkendija
1.60

allows per match

Renova
1.00
Shkendija
0.97

finishing

Renova+0.00on par
Shkendija+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renova ↓

Shkendija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Renova or draw
60%
Renova or Shkendija
73%
Draw or Shkendija
67%

Winning margin

Renova wins by 2+
14%
Shkendija wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Renova 1+ goals
69%
Renova 2+ goals
32%
Renova 3+ goals
11%
Shkendija 1+ goals
73%
Shkendija 2+ goals
37%
Shkendija 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Renova (draw refunded)
45%
Shkendija (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renova at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 53 matches

Shkendija away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.97 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renova attack 1.34 + Shkendija defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.16

Shkendija attack 1.60 + Renova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Renova scores more
33%
level
27%
Shkendija scores more
40%

Shkendija at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shkendija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Renova host Shkendija

March 15, 2020: Renova take on Shkendija in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Renova host Shkendija at Ecolog Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.