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Renova vs Makedonija GjP — First League 2019

Renova
Renova
CANC
00:00
Makedonija GjP
Makedonija GjP
10/26/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 12Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Renova45%
×Draw27%
Makedonija GjP29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renova
1.42
Makedonija GjP
1.09

Renova creates 30% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 94 away

creates per match

Renova
1.19
Makedonija GjP
1.14

allows per match

Renova
1.04
Makedonija GjP
1.65

finishing

Renova+0.00on par
Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renova ↓

Makedonija GjP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Renova or draw
71%
Renova or Makedonija GjP
73%
Draw or Makedonija GjP
55%

Winning margin

Renova wins by 2+
21%
Makedonija GjP wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Renova 1+ goals
76%
Renova 2+ goals
41%
Renova 3+ goals
17%
Makedonija GjP 1+ goals
66%
Makedonija GjP 2+ goals
30%
Makedonija GjP 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Renova (draw refunded)
61%
Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renova at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Makedonija GjP away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renova attack 1.19 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

Makedonija GjP attack 1.14 + Renova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Renova scores more
45%
level
27%
Makedonija GjP scores more
29%

Renova at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Renova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Renova host Makedonija GjP

October 26, 2022: Renova take on Makedonija GjP in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Renova host Makedonija GjP at Ecolog Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.