Makedonija GjP 1–1 Renova: Result & Stats

Makedonija GjP

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Renova

E. Adem 87' (pen)

V. Serafimovski 56'

10/2/2021

First League · Round 9Stadion Gorče Petrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Makedonija GjP45%

×Draw26%

Renova29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Makedonija GjPExpected goals in this matchRenova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.09

Makedonija GjP

1.43

Renova

1.09

Makedonija GjP creates 31% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 46 away

1.36

creates per match

1.15

1.03

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Makedonija GjP

1.36

Renova

1.15

allows per match

Makedonija GjP

1.03

Renova

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Makedonija GjP ↓

Renova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Makedonija GjP or draw

71%

Makedonija GjP or Renova

74%

Draw or Renova

55%

Winning margin

Makedonija GjP wins by 2+

22%

Renova wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Makedonija GjP 1+ goals

76%

Makedonija GjP 2+ goals

42%

Makedonija GjP 3+ goals

17%

Renova 1+ goals

66%

Renova 2+ goals

30%

Renova 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)

61%

Renova (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Makedonija GjP at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Renova away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Makedonija GjP attack 1.36 + Renova defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Renova attack 1.15 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Makedonija GjP scores more

45%

level

26%

Renova scores more

29%

Makedonija GjP at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Makedonija GjP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

E. Lichina

20'

F. Misevski

40'

B. Sadiki

46'

J. Mena← F. Ebibi

56'

V. Serafimovski

57'

F. Jusufi

64'

A. Vosha← B. Bozhinovski

69'

K. Ivanovski← S. Emini

82'

A. Kamara← M. Krstovski

83'

Fernandinho

85'

B. Mustafov← S. Shefiti

87'

E. AdemPenalty

90+1'

E. Ramadani← F. Jusufi

90+2'

S. Fetai← B. Sadiki

Makedonija

Renova

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: A. Tanevski

64'▲A. Vosha←▼B. Bozhinovski

69'▲K. Ivanovski←▼S. Emini

82'▲A. Kamara←▼M. Krstovski

Makedonija GjP substitutes

VoshaIvanovskiKamara

Manager: Q. Osmani

46'▲J. Mena←▼F. Ebibi

85'▲B. Mustafov←▼S. Shefiti

90+1'▲E. Ramadani←▼F. Jusufi

90+2'▲S. Fetai←▼B. Sadiki

Renova substitutes

MenaMustafovRamadaniFetai

First League: Makedonija GjP 1–1 Renova

Makedonija GjP and Renova drew 1-1 in First League on October 2, 2021.

Goals: V. Serafimovski (56'), E. Adem (87' pen).

The match was played at Stadion Gorče Petrov in Skopje.

Makedonija GjP vs Renova — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Makedonija GjP 1–1 Renova