Renova 1–3 Makedonija GjP: Result & Stats

Renova

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Makedonija GjP

A. Gavazaj 90'

A. Vosha 90+4'

S. Emini 41' (pen)

F. Petrov 11'

9/27/2020

First League · Round 7Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Renova45%

×Draw27%

Makedonija GjP29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RenovaExpected goals in this matchMakedonija GjP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.09

Renova

1.42

Makedonija GjP

1.09

Renova creates 30% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 94 away

1.19

creates per match

1.14

1.04

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Renova

1.19

Makedonija GjP

1.14

allows per match

Renova

1.04

Makedonija GjP

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renova+0.00on par

Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renova ↓

Makedonija GjP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Renova or draw

71%

Renova or Makedonija GjP

73%

Draw or Makedonija GjP

55%

Winning margin

Renova wins by 2+

21%

Makedonija GjP wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Renova 1+ goals

76%

Renova 2+ goals

41%

Renova 3+ goals

17%

Makedonija GjP 1+ goals

66%

Makedonija GjP 2+ goals

30%

Makedonija GjP 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Renova (draw refunded)

61%

Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renova at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Makedonija GjP away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renova attack 1.19 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.42

Makedonija GjP attack 1.14 + Renova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Renova scores more

45%

level

27%

Makedonija GjP scores more

29%

Renova at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Renova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

11'

15'

31'

40'

41'

S. EminiPenalty

53'

A. Gavazaj

58'

A. Jasharovski← S. Shefiti

63'

Fernando Augusto← F. Petrov

65'

B. Sadiki← S. Muharem

70'

Fernandinho

73'

M. Kovachev

77'

Fernandinho

77'

Fernandinho

78'

M. Nastevski← K. Filipovski

78'

A. Vosha← B. Bozhinovski

84'

F. Stojchevski← E. Ramadani

87'

M. Nastevski

90+5'

A. Vosha

90'

F. Mishevski← S. Emini

90'

D. Stoshikj← B. Demir

90'

A. Gavazaj

90+4'

A. Vosha

Renova

Makedonija

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Emini

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: B. Islami

58'▲A. Jasharovski←▼S. Shefiti

65'▲B. Sadiki←▼S. Muharem

84'▲F. Stojchevski←▼E. Ramadani

Renova substitutes

JasharovskiSadikiStojchevski

Manager: Z. Tasevski

63'▲Fernando Augusto←▼F. Petrov

78'▲M. Nastevski←▼K. Filipovski

78'▲A. Vosha←▼B. Bozhinovski

90'▲F. Mishevski←▼S. Emini

90'▲D. Stoshikj←▼B. Demir

Makedonija GjP substitutes

AugustoNastevskiVoshaMishevskiStoshikj

First League: Renova 1–3 Makedonija GjP

Makedonija GjP beat Renova 3-1 in First League on September 27, 2020.

Goals: F. Petrov (11'), S. Emini (41' pen), A. Gavazaj (90'), A. Vosha (90+4').

The match was played at Ecolog Arena in Tetovo.

Renova vs Makedonija GjP — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Renova 1–3 Makedonija GjP