Renova 1–1 Makedonija GjP: Result & Stats

Renova

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Makedonija GjP

R. Selmani 54'

David Blazhevski 90'

11/27/2019

First League · Round 16Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Renova47%

×Draw26%

Makedonija GjP27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RenovaExpected goals in this matchMakedonija GjP

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.07

Renova

1.50

Makedonija GjP

1.07

Renova creates 40% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 94 away

1.34

creates per match

1.14

1.00

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Renova

1.34

Makedonija GjP

1.14

allows per match

Renova

1.00

Makedonija GjP

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renova+0.00on par

Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renova ↓

Makedonija GjP →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Renova or draw

73%

Renova or Makedonija GjP

74%

Draw or Makedonija GjP

53%

Winning margin

Renova wins by 2+

24%

Makedonija GjP wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Renova 1+ goals

78%

Renova 2+ goals

44%

Renova 3+ goals

19%

Makedonija GjP 1+ goals

66%

Makedonija GjP 2+ goals

29%

Makedonija GjP 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Renova (draw refunded)

64%

Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renova at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 53 matches

Makedonija GjP away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renova attack 1.34 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Makedonija GjP attack 1.14 + Renova defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Renova scores more

47%

level

26%

Makedonija GjP scores more

27%

Renova at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Renova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

R. Selmani

62'

Padu← Bianor

62'

David Blazhevski← B. Bozhinovski

77'

K. Filipovski← B. Demir

79'

M. Saliji← B. Miovski

86'

A. Veliu← F. Kadriu

90'

D. Blazevski

90'

I. Bekjiri← R. Selmani

90'

David Blazhevski

Renova

Makedonija

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Selmani

▼

Kadriu

▼

Miovski

Manager: B. Islami

79'▲M. Saliji←▼B. Miovski

86'▲A. Veliu←▼F. Kadriu

90'▲I. Bekjiri←▼R. Selmani

Renova substitutes

SalijiVeliuBekjiri

Manager: N. Şensoy

62'▲Padu←▼Bianor

62'▲David Blazhevski←▼B. Bozhinovski

77'▲K. Filipovski←▼B. Demir

Makedonija GjP substitutes

PaduBlazhevskiFilipovski