Renova 5–2 Bregalnica Štip: Result & Stats

Renova

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Bregalnica Štip

B. Mustafov 90+2'

A. Ilievski 74'

S. Shefiti 37'

R. Selmani 33'

F. Jusufi 21'

J. Manev 53'

M. Altiparmakovski 25'

9/26/2021

First League · Round 8Ecolog Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Renova48%

×Draw27%

Bregalnica Štip25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RenovaExpected goals in this matchBregalnica Štip

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.93

Renova

1.42

Bregalnica Štip

0.93

Renova creates 53% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 47 away

1.19

creates per match

0.81

1.04

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Renova

1.19

Bregalnica Štip

0.81

allows per match

Renova

1.04

Bregalnica Štip

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renova+0.00on par

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renova ↓

Bregalnica Štip →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Renova or draw

75%

Renova or Bregalnica Štip

73%

Draw or Bregalnica Štip

52%

Winning margin

Renova wins by 2+

24%

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Renova 1+ goals

76%

Renova 2+ goals

41%

Renova 3+ goals

17%

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals

61%

Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals

24%

Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Renova (draw refunded)

66%

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renova at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Bregalnica Štip away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renova attack 1.19 + Bregalnica Štip defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Bregalnica Štip attack 0.81 + Renova defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Renova scores more

48%

level

27%

Bregalnica Štip scores more

25%

Renova at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Renova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

21'

25'

32'

33'

37'

46'

M. Naumoski← N. Bakracheski

53'

J. Manev

56'

D. Dodev

59'

J. Mena← F. Ebibi

59'

B. Mustafov← B. Sadiki

70'

M. Muarem← M. Stojanov

74'

A. Ilievski

78'

E. Ramadani← S. Shefiti

78'

A. Emurli← V. Serafimovski

79'

M. Đokić← K. Ackovski

79'

F. Milenkovski← M. Manevski

86'

A. Gafuri← R. Selmani

90+2'

B. Mustafov

Renova

Bregalnica

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Selmani

⚽

▼

Shefiti

Manager: Q. Osmani

59'▲J. Mena←▼F. Ebibi

59'▲B. Mustafov←▼B. Sadiki

78'▲E. Ramadani←▼S. Shefiti

78'▲A. Emurli←▼V. Serafimovski

86'▲A. Gafuri←▼R. Selmani

Renova substitutes

MenaMustafovRamadaniEmurliGafuri

Manager: M. Sekulovski

46'▲M. Naumoski←▼N. Bakracheski

70'▲M. Muarem←▼M. Stojanov

79'▲M. Đokić←▼K. Ackovski

79'▲F. Milenkovski←▼M. Manevski

Bregalnica Štip substitutes

NaumoskiMuaremĐokićMilenkovski