Bregalnica Štip 2–2 Renova: Result & Stats

Bregalnica Štip

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Renova

U. Damnjanović 58', 35' (pen)

R. Selmani 80' (pen)

S. Shefiti 76'

4/3/2022

First League · Round 25Trening centar Petar Miloševski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Bregalnica Štip44%

×Draw26%

Renova30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bregalnica ŠtipExpected goals in this matchRenova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.13

Bregalnica Štip

1.44

Renova

1.13

Bregalnica Štip creates 27% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 46 away

1.37

creates per match

1.15

1.10

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Bregalnica Štip

1.37

Renova

1.15

allows per match

Bregalnica Štip

1.10

Renova

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par

Renova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bregalnica Štip ↓

Renova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bregalnica Štip or draw

70%

Bregalnica Štip or Renova

74%

Draw or Renova

56%

Winning margin

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+

21%

Renova wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals

76%

Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals

42%

Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals

18%

Renova 1+ goals

68%

Renova 2+ goals

31%

Renova 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)

60%

Renova (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bregalnica Štip at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 49 matches

Renova away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bregalnica Štip attack 1.37 + Renova defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Renova attack 1.15 + Bregalnica Štip defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bregalnica Štip scores more

44%

level

26%

Renova scores more

30%

Bregalnica Štip at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bregalnica Štip will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

D. Dodev

35'

U. DamnjanovićPenalty

45'

45'

46'

46'

46'

B. Mustafov← N. Məmmədzadə

46'

J. Mena← B. Sadiki

46'

S. Shefiti← A. Taipi

52'

K. Ackovski← B. Georgiev

52'

M. Altiparmakovski← M. Đokić

58'

U. Damnjanović

64'

A. Kahrimanovic← V. Serafimovski

75'

J. Manev← U. Damnjanović

76'

79'

79'

79'

80'

R. SelmaniPenalty

86'

J. Manev

89'

D. Denkovski

90+3'

L. Kudev← F. Milenkovski

Bregalnica

Renova

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

Manager: I. Gjorgjioski

52'▲K. Ackovski←▼B. Georgiev

52'▲M. Altiparmakovski←▼M. Đokić

75'▲J. Manev←▼U. Damnjanović

90+3'▲L. Kudev←▼F. Milenkovski

Bregalnica Štip substitutes

AckovskiAltiparmakovskiManevKudevPetrovskiDimitrievskiGjorgjievKocevDujovski

Manager: Q. Osmani

46'▲B. Mustafov←▼N. Məmmədzadə

46'▲J. Mena←▼B. Sadiki

46'▲S. Shefiti←▼A. Taipi

64'▲A. Kahrimanovic←▼V. Serafimovski

Renova substitutes

MustafovMenaShefitiKahrimanovicAliCordobaEmurliAleksovskiFetai

First League: Bregalnica Štip 2–2 Renova

Bregalnica Štip and Renova drew 2-2 in First League on April 3, 2022.

Goals: U. Damnjanović (35' pen, 58'), S. Shefiti (76'), R. Selmani (80' pen).

The match was played at Trening centar Petar Miloševski in Skopje.

Bregalnica Štip vs Renova — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Bregalnica Štip 2–2 Renova