Renofa Yamaguchi 2–0 Avispa Fukuoka: Result & Stats

Renofa Yamaguchi

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Avispa Fukuoka

9/28/2019

J2 League · Round 34Ishin Me-Life Stadium (Yamaguchi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Renofa Yamaguchi35%

×Draw27%

Avispa Fukuoka38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Renofa YamaguchiExpected goals in this matchAvispa Fukuoka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.27

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.20

Avispa Fukuoka

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 167 home / 65 away

1.26

creates per match

1.18

1.36

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.26

Avispa Fukuoka

1.18

allows per match

Renofa Yamaguchi

1.36

Avispa Fukuoka

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renofa Yamaguchi ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Renofa Yamaguchi or draw

62%

Renofa Yamaguchi or Avispa Fukuoka

73%

Draw or Avispa Fukuoka

65%

Winning margin

Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+

15%

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals

70%

Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals

34%

Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals

12%

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals

72%

Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals

36%

Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)

48%

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renofa Yamaguchi at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 167 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 1.26 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.18 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Renofa Yamaguchi scores more

35%

level

27%

Avispa Fukuoka scores more

38%

Avispa Fukuoka at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff