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Avispa Fukuoka vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2018

Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
9/5/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 17Level-5 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka46%
×Draw27%
Renofa Yamaguchi27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avispa Fukuoka
1.36
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.97

Avispa Fukuoka creates 40% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 168 away

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.22
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.98

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka
0.97
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.50

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw
73%
Avispa Fukuoka or Renofa Yamaguchi
73%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
54%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
22%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
74%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
39%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
16%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
62%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
25%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
63%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.97 · 64 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.22 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more
46%
level
27%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
27%

Avispa Fukuoka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Avispa Fukuoka 2–0 Renofa Yamaguchi

Avispa Fukuoka beat Renofa Yamaguchi 2-0 in J2 League on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Level-5 Stadium in Fukuoka.