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Reno 1868 vs Real Monarchs — USL Championship 2018

Reno 1868
Reno 1868
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Real Monarchs
Real Monarchs
9/29/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 55Aces Ballpark (Reno, Nevada)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Reno 186854%
×Draw22%
Real Monarchs24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reno 1868
1.97
Real Monarchs
1.26

Reno 1868 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 57 away

creates per match

Reno 1868
2.13
Real Monarchs
1.12

allows per match

Reno 1868
1.40
Real Monarchs
1.81

finishing

Reno 1868+0.00on par
Real Monarchs+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reno 1868 ↓

Real Monarchs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Reno 1868 or draw
76%
Reno 1868 or Real Monarchs
78%
Draw or Real Monarchs
46%

Winning margin

Reno 1868 wins by 2+
31%
Real Monarchs wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Reno 1868 1+ goals
86%
Reno 1868 2+ goals
58%
Reno 1868 3+ goals
31%
Real Monarchs 1+ goals
72%
Real Monarchs 2+ goals
36%
Real Monarchs 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Reno 1868 (draw refunded)
69%
Real Monarchs (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reno 1868 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

Real Monarchs away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.81 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reno 1868 attack 2.13 + Real Monarchs defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.97

Real Monarchs attack 1.12 + Reno 1868 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Reno 1868 scores more
54%
level
22%
Real Monarchs scores more
24%

Reno 1868 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Reno 1868 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Reno 1868 vs Real Monarchs

Real Monarchs beat Reno 1868 2-1 in USL Championship on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Aces Ballpark (Reno, Nevada).