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Real Monarchs vs Reno 1868 — USL Championship 2018

Real Monarchs
Real Monarchs
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Reno 1868
Reno 1868
4/6/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 8Zions Bank Stadium (Herriman, Utah)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Real Monarchs37%
×Draw24%
Reno 186839%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Monarchs
1.52
Reno 1868
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 44 away

creates per match

Real Monarchs
1.83
Reno 1868
1.84

allows per match

Real Monarchs
1.32
Reno 1868
1.20

finishing

Real Monarchs+0.00on par
Reno 1868+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Monarchs ↓

Reno 1868 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Real Monarchs or draw
61%
Real Monarchs or Reno 1868
76%
Draw or Reno 1868
63%

Winning margin

Real Monarchs wins by 2+
18%
Reno 1868 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Real Monarchs 1+ goals
78%
Real Monarchs 2+ goals
45%
Real Monarchs 3+ goals
20%
Reno 1868 1+ goals
79%
Reno 1868 2+ goals
47%
Reno 1868 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Real Monarchs (draw refunded)
48%
Reno 1868 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Monarchs at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.32 · 63 matches

Reno 1868 away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Monarchs attack 1.83 + Reno 1868 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Reno 1868 attack 1.84 + Real Monarchs defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Monarchs scores more
37%
level
24%
Reno 1868 scores more
39%

Reno 1868 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Reno 1868 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Real Monarchs 3–1 Reno 1868

Real Monarchs beat Reno 1868 3-1 in USL Championship on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Zions Bank Stadium (Herriman, Utah).