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Reno 1868 vs Phoenix Rising — USL Championship 2018

Reno 1868
Reno 1868
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising
8/30/2020USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 17Greater Nevada Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Reno 186847%
×Draw23%
Phoenix Rising30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reno 1868
1.82
Phoenix Rising
1.40

Reno 1868 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 136 away

creates per match

Reno 1868
2.13
Phoenix Rising
1.40

allows per match

Reno 1868
1.40
Phoenix Rising
1.51

finishing

Reno 1868+0.00on par
Phoenix Rising+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reno 1868 ↓

Phoenix Rising →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Reno 1868 or draw
70%
Reno 1868 or Phoenix Rising
77%
Draw or Phoenix Rising
53%

Winning margin

Reno 1868 wins by 2+
26%
Phoenix Rising wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Reno 1868 1+ goals
84%
Reno 1868 2+ goals
54%
Reno 1868 3+ goals
27%
Phoenix Rising 1+ goals
75%
Phoenix Rising 2+ goals
41%
Phoenix Rising 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Reno 1868 (draw refunded)
61%
Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reno 1868 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

Phoenix Rising away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reno 1868 attack 2.13 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.82

Phoenix Rising attack 1.40 + Reno 1868 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Reno 1868 scores more
47%
level
23%
Phoenix Rising scores more
30%

Reno 1868 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Reno 1868 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Reno 1868 2–1 Phoenix Rising

Reno 1868 beat Phoenix Rising 2-1 in USL Championship on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at Greater Nevada Field in Reno, Nevada.