Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Phoenix Rising vs Reno 1868 — USL Championship 2018

Phoenix Rising
Phoenix Rising
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Reno 1868
Reno 1868
8/17/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 42Casino Arizona Field (Scottsdale, Arizona)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Phoenix Rising44%
×Draw24%
Reno 186833%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Phoenix Rising
1.69
Reno 1868
1.44

Phoenix Rising creates 17% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 44 away

creates per match

Phoenix Rising
2.17
Reno 1868
1.84

allows per match

Phoenix Rising
1.04
Reno 1868
1.20

finishing

Phoenix Rising+0.00on par
Reno 1868+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phoenix Rising ↓

Reno 1868 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Phoenix Rising or draw
67%
Phoenix Rising or Reno 1868
76%
Draw or Reno 1868
56%

Winning margin

Phoenix Rising wins by 2+
23%
Reno 1868 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Phoenix Rising 1+ goals
82%
Phoenix Rising 2+ goals
50%
Phoenix Rising 3+ goals
24%
Reno 1868 1+ goals
76%
Reno 1868 2+ goals
42%
Reno 1868 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Phoenix Rising (draw refunded)
57%
Reno 1868 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phoenix Rising at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.04 · 135 matches

Reno 1868 away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phoenix Rising attack 2.17 + Reno 1868 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.69

Reno 1868 attack 1.84 + Phoenix Rising defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Phoenix Rising scores more
44%
level
24%
Reno 1868 scores more
33%

Phoenix Rising at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Phoenix Rising will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Phoenix Rising 4–2 Reno 1868

Phoenix Rising beat Reno 1868 4-2 in USL Championship on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Casino Arizona Field (Scottsdale, Arizona).