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Reno 1868 vs Las Vegas Lights — USL Championship 2018

Reno 1868
Reno 1868
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Las Vegas Lights
Las Vegas Lights
6/2/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 23Aces Ballpark (Reno, Nevada)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Reno 186857%
×Draw21%
Las Vegas Lights22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Reno 1868
2.12
Las Vegas Lights
1.25

Reno 1868 creates 70% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 133 away

creates per match

Reno 1868
2.13
Las Vegas Lights
1.09

allows per match

Reno 1868
1.40
Las Vegas Lights
2.11

finishing

Reno 1868+0.00on par
Las Vegas Lights+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reno 1868 ↓

Las Vegas Lights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Reno 1868 or draw
78%
Reno 1868 or Las Vegas Lights
79%
Draw or Las Vegas Lights
43%

Winning margin

Reno 1868 wins by 2+
35%
Las Vegas Lights wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Reno 1868 1+ goals
88%
Reno 1868 2+ goals
62%
Reno 1868 3+ goals
35%
Las Vegas Lights 1+ goals
71%
Las Vegas Lights 2+ goals
36%
Las Vegas Lights 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Reno 1868 (draw refunded)
72%
Las Vegas Lights (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reno 1868 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

Las Vegas Lights away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.11 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reno 1868 attack 2.13 + Las Vegas Lights defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.12

Las Vegas Lights attack 1.09 + Reno 1868 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Reno 1868 scores more
57%
level
21%
Las Vegas Lights scores more
22%

Reno 1868 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Reno 1868 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Reno 1868 4–0 Las Vegas Lights

Reno 1868 beat Las Vegas Lights 4-0 in USL Championship on June 2, 2019.

The match was played at Aces Ballpark (Reno, Nevada).