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Las Vegas Lights vs Reno 1868 — USL Championship 2018

Las Vegas Lights
Las Vegas Lights
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Reno 1868
Reno 1868
10/13/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 60Cashman Field (Las Vegas, Nevada)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Las Vegas Lights30%
×Draw24%
Reno 186846%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Vegas Lights
1.31
Reno 1868
1.68

Reno 1868 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 44 away

creates per match

Las Vegas Lights
1.42
Reno 1868
1.84

allows per match

Las Vegas Lights
1.51
Reno 1868
1.20

finishing

Las Vegas Lights+0.00on par
Reno 1868+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Vegas Lights ↓

Reno 1868 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Las Vegas Lights or draw
54%
Las Vegas Lights or Reno 1868
76%
Draw or Reno 1868
70%

Winning margin

Las Vegas Lights wins by 2+
13%
Reno 1868 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Las Vegas Lights 1+ goals
73%
Las Vegas Lights 2+ goals
38%
Las Vegas Lights 3+ goals
14%
Reno 1868 1+ goals
81%
Reno 1868 2+ goals
50%
Reno 1868 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Las Vegas Lights (draw refunded)
39%
Reno 1868 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Vegas Lights at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.51 · 131 matches

Reno 1868 away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Vegas Lights attack 1.42 + Reno 1868 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Reno 1868 attack 1.84 + Las Vegas Lights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Las Vegas Lights scores more
30%
level
24%
Reno 1868 scores more
46%

Reno 1868 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Reno 1868 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Vegas Lights vs Reno 1868

Reno 1868 beat Las Vegas Lights 2-0 in USL Championship on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Cashman Field (Las Vegas, Nevada).