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Rennes vs Lille — Ligue 1 2018

Rennes
Rennes
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Lille
Lille
2/16/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Roazhon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Rennes41%
×Draw25%
Lille34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rennes
1.46
Lille
1.31

Rennes creates 11% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 26 away

creates per match

Rennes
1.61
Lille
1.32

allows per match

Rennes
1.29
Lille
1.31

finishing

Rennes+0.04on par
Lille+0.06on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rennes ↓

Lille →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rennes or draw
66%
Rennes or Lille
75%
Draw or Lille
59%

Winning margin

Rennes wins by 2+
20%
Lille wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rennes 1+ goals
77%
Rennes 2+ goals
43%
Rennes 3+ goals
18%
Lille 1+ goals
73%
Lille 2+ goals
38%
Lille 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rennes (draw refunded)
55%
Lille (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rennes at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.29 · 23 matches

Lille away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rennes attack 1.61 + Lille defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lille attack 1.32 + Rennes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rennes scores more
41%
level
25%
Lille scores more
34%

Rennes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rennes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rennes 0 – 2 Lille

Lille beat Rennes 2-0 in Ligue 1 on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Roazhon Park in Rennes.