Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lille vs Rennes — Ligue 1 2018

Lille
Lille
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Rennes
Rennes
3/10/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 25Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Lille48%
×Draw24%
Rennes28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lille
1.67
Rennes
1.21

Lille creates 38% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 22 away

creates per match

Lille
1.77
Rennes
1.44

allows per match

Lille
0.99
Rennes
1.56

finishing

Lille-0.12scores less
Rennes+0.33scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille ↓

Rennes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lille or draw
72%
Lille or Rennes
76%
Draw or Rennes
52%

Winning margin

Lille wins by 2+
25%
Rennes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lille 1+ goals
81%
Lille 2+ goals
50%
Lille 3+ goals
23%
Rennes 1+ goals
70%
Rennes 2+ goals
34%
Rennes 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lille (draw refunded)
63%
Rennes (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.99 · 26 matches

Rennes away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.56 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille attack 1.77 + Rennes defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.67

Rennes attack 1.44 + Lille defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lille scores more
48%
level
24%
Rennes scores more
28%

Lille at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lille will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lille 2 – 2 Rennes

Lille and Rennes drew 2-2 in Ligue 1 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve d'Ascq.