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Renaissance vs New Jack — Ligue 1 2019

Renaissance
Renaissance
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
New Jack
New Jack
11/6/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade Tata Raphaël

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Renaissance41%
×Draw30%
New Jack30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance
1.16
New Jack
0.95

Renaissance creates 22% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 22 away

creates per match

Renaissance
1.04
New Jack
0.59

allows per match

Renaissance
1.31
New Jack
1.27

finishing

Renaissance+0.00on par
New Jack+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance ↓

New Jack →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Renaissance or draw
70%
Renaissance or New Jack
70%
Draw or New Jack
59%

Winning margin

Renaissance wins by 2+
17%
New Jack wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Renaissance 1+ goals
69%
Renaissance 2+ goals
32%
Renaissance 3+ goals
11%
New Jack 1+ goals
61%
New Jack 2+ goals
25%
New Jack 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Renaissance (draw refunded)
58%
New Jack (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 78 matches

New Jack away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.27 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance attack 1.04 + New Jack defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

New Jack attack 0.59 + Renaissance defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Renaissance scores more
41%
level
30%
New Jack scores more
30%

Renaissance at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Renaissance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Renaissance vs New Jack

New Jack beat Renaissance 4-0 in Ligue 1 on November 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Tata Raphaël in Kinshasa.