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New Jack vs Renaissance — Ligue 1 2019

New Jack
New Jack
FT
1 – 1
Renaissance
Renaissance
3/8/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 18Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

New Jack41%
×Draw30%
Renaissance29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

New Jack
1.12
Renaissance
0.89

New Jack creates 26% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 69 away

creates per match

New Jack
0.96
Renaissance
0.77

allows per match

New Jack
1.00
Renaissance
1.28

finishing

New Jack+0.00on par
Renaissance+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

New Jack ↓

Renaissance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

New Jack or draw
71%
New Jack or Renaissance
70%
Draw or Renaissance
59%

Winning margin

New Jack wins by 2+
17%
Renaissance wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

New Jack 1+ goals
67%
New Jack 2+ goals
31%
New Jack 3+ goals
10%
Renaissance 1+ goals
59%
Renaissance 2+ goals
22%
Renaissance 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

New Jack (draw refunded)
59%
Renaissance (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

New Jack at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

Renaissance away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.28 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

New Jack attack 0.96 + Renaissance defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.12

Renaissance attack 0.77 + New Jack defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

New Jack scores more
41%
level
30%
Renaissance scores more
29%

New Jack at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "New Jack will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: New Jack 1–1 Renaissance

New Jack and Renaissance drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.