Renaissance 2–1 Matelots: Result & Stats

Renaissance

FT

2 – 1

Matelots

2/27/2021

Elite Two · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Renaissance63%

×Draw20%

Matelots17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RenaissanceExpected goals in this matchMatelots

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.97

Renaissance

2.08

Matelots

0.97

Renaissance creates 114% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

0.67

1.27

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Renaissance

1.33

Matelots

0.67

allows per match

Renaissance

1.27

Matelots

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renaissance+0.00on par

Matelots+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance ↓

Matelots →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Renaissance or draw

83%

Renaissance or Matelots

80%

Draw or Matelots

37%

Winning margin

Renaissance wins by 2+

39%

Matelots wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Renaissance 1+ goals

87%

Renaissance 2+ goals

61%

Renaissance 3+ goals

34%

Matelots 1+ goals

62%

Matelots 2+ goals

25%

Matelots 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Renaissance (draw refunded)

79%

Matelots (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Matelots away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance attack 1.33 + Matelots defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.08

Matelots attack 0.67 + Renaissance defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Renaissance scores more

63%

level

20%

Matelots scores more

17%

Renaissance at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Renaissance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff