Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Matelots vs Renaissance — Elite Two 2020

Matelots
Matelots
FT
0 – 1
Renaissance
Renaissance
7/9/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Matelots26%
×Draw25%
Renaissance48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Matelots
1.08
Renaissance
1.56

Renaissance creates 44% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Matelots
0.67
Renaissance
0.79

allows per match

Matelots
2.33
Renaissance
1.50

finishing

Matelots+0.00on par
Renaissance+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Matelots ↓

Renaissance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Matelots or draw
52%
Matelots or Renaissance
75%
Draw or Renaissance
74%

Winning margin

Matelots wins by 2+
10%
Renaissance wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Matelots 1+ goals
66%
Matelots 2+ goals
29%
Matelots 3+ goals
10%
Renaissance 1+ goals
79%
Renaissance 2+ goals
46%
Renaissance 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Matelots (draw refunded)
35%
Renaissance (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Matelots at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

Renaissance away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Matelots attack 0.67 + Renaissance defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Renaissance attack 0.79 + Matelots defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Matelots scores more
26%
level
25%
Renaissance scores more
48%

Renaissance at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Renaissance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Matelots 0–1 Renaissance

Renaissance beat Matelots 1-0 in Elite Two on July 9, 2021.