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Renaissance vs Dynamo de Douala — Elite Two 2020

Renaissance
Renaissance
FT
1 – 0
Dynamo de Douala
Dynamo de Douala
7/15/2021Elite TwoElite Two · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Renaissance39%
×Draw28%
Dynamo de Douala33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance
1.20
Dynamo de Douala
1.08

Renaissance creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

creates per match

Renaissance
1.33
Dynamo de Douala
0.89

allows per match

Renaissance
1.27
Dynamo de Douala
1.06

finishing

Renaissance+0.00on par
Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance ↓

Dynamo de Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Renaissance or draw
67%
Renaissance or Dynamo de Douala
72%
Draw or Dynamo de Douala
61%

Winning margin

Renaissance wins by 2+
17%
Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Renaissance 1+ goals
70%
Renaissance 2+ goals
34%
Renaissance 3+ goals
12%
Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals
66%
Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals
29%
Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Renaissance (draw refunded)
54%
Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Dynamo de Douala away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance attack 1.33 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Dynamo de Douala attack 0.89 + Renaissance defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Renaissance scores more
39%
level
28%
Dynamo de Douala scores more
33%

Renaissance at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Renaissance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Renaissance vs Dynamo de Douala

Renaissance beat Dynamo de Douala 1-0 in Elite Two on July 15, 2021.