Dynamo de Douala 0–0 Renaissance: Result & Stats

Dynamo de Douala

FT

0 – 0

Renaissance

3/13/2021

Elite Two · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dynamo de Douala50%

×Draw26%

Renaissance24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo de DoualaExpected goals in this matchRenaissance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.95

Dynamo de Douala

1.52

Renaissance

0.95

Dynamo de Douala creates 60% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 14 away

1.53

creates per match

0.79

1.11

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Dynamo de Douala

1.53

Renaissance

0.79

allows per match

Dynamo de Douala

1.11

Renaissance

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo de Douala+0.00on par

Renaissance+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo de Douala ↓

Renaissance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dynamo de Douala or draw

76%

Dynamo de Douala or Renaissance

74%

Draw or Renaissance

50%

Winning margin

Dynamo de Douala wins by 2+

26%

Renaissance wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Dynamo de Douala 1+ goals

78%

Dynamo de Douala 2+ goals

45%

Dynamo de Douala 3+ goals

20%

Renaissance 1+ goals

61%

Renaissance 2+ goals

25%

Renaissance 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dynamo de Douala (draw refunded)

68%

Renaissance (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo de Douala at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Renaissance away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo de Douala attack 1.53 + Renaissance defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Renaissance attack 0.79 + Dynamo de Douala defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dynamo de Douala scores more

50%

level

26%

Renaissance scores more

24%

Dynamo de Douala at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dynamo de Douala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff