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Renaissance Berkane vs Ittihad Tanger — Botola Pro 2025

Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
10/2/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 3Stade Municipal de Berkane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Renaissance Berkane50%
×Draw27%
Ittihad Tanger24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance Berkane
1.46
Ittihad Tanger
0.92

Renaissance Berkane creates 59% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane
1.54
Ittihad Tanger
0.89

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane
0.94
Ittihad Tanger
1.39

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par
Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

Ittihad Tanger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw
76%
Renaissance Berkane or Ittihad Tanger
73%
Draw or Ittihad Tanger
50%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
25%
Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
77%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
43%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
18%
Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
60%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
23%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
68%
Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.94 · 120 matches

Ittihad Tanger away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.39 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.54 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.89 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more
50%
level
27%
Ittihad Tanger scores more
24%

Renaissance Berkane at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Renaissance Berkane 0–0 Ittihad Tanger

Renaissance Berkane and Ittihad Tanger drew 0-0 in Botola Pro on October 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berkane in Berkane.