Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ittihad Tanger vs Renaissance Berkane — Cup 2020

Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
3/27/2025CupCup · 16th FinalsStade du village sportif de Tanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ittihad Tanger24%
×Draw34%
Renaissance Berkane42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Tanger
0.67
Renaissance Berkane
1.00

Renaissance Berkane creates 49% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ittihad Tanger
1.33
Renaissance Berkane
1.67

allows per match

Ittihad Tanger
0.33
Renaissance Berkane
0.00

finishing

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par
Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Tanger ↓

Renaissance Berkane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–119%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Ittihad Tanger or draw
58%
Ittihad Tanger or Renaissance Berkane
66%
Draw or Renaissance Berkane
76%

Winning margin

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
7%
Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
49%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
15%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
3%
Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
63%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
26%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
36%
Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Tanger attack 1.33 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.67

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.67 + Ittihad Tanger defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ittihad Tanger scores more
24%
level
34%
Renaissance Berkane scores more
42%

Renaissance Berkane at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ittihad Tanger vs Renaissance Berkane

Renaissance Berkane beat Ittihad Tanger 1-0 in Cup on March 27, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du village sportif de Tanger in Tangier.