Renaissance Berkane 0–1 FUS Rabat: Result & Stats

Renaissance Berkane

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FUS Rabat

10/6/2024

Botola Pro · Round 5Stade Municipal de Berkane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Renaissance Berkane42%

×Draw28%

FUS Rabat30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Renaissance BerkaneExpected goals in this matchFUS Rabat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.02

Renaissance Berkane

1.28

FUS Rabat

1.02

Renaissance Berkane creates 25% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

1.54

creates per match

1.09

0.94

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane

1.54

FUS Rabat

1.09

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane

0.94

FUS Rabat

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

FUS Rabat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw

70%

Renaissance Berkane or FUS Rabat

72%

Draw or FUS Rabat

58%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+

19%

FUS Rabat wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals

72%

Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals

37%

Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals

14%

FUS Rabat 1+ goals

64%

FUS Rabat 2+ goals

27%

FUS Rabat 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)

59%

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.94 · 120 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.54 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.28

FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more

42%

level

28%

FUS Rabat scores more

30%

Renaissance Berkane at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff