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FUS Rabat vs Renaissance Berkane — Botola Pro 2025

FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
2/9/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 20Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

FUS Rabat37%
×Draw31%
Renaissance Berkane32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FUS Rabat
1.05
Renaissance Berkane
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 120 home / 118 away

creates per match

FUS Rabat
1.25
Renaissance Berkane
1.03

allows per match

FUS Rabat
0.88
Renaissance Berkane
0.86

finishing

FUS Rabat+0.00on par
Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FUS Rabat ↓

Renaissance Berkane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

FUS Rabat or draw
68%
FUS Rabat or Renaissance Berkane
69%
Draw or Renaissance Berkane
63%

Winning margin

FUS Rabat wins by 2+
15%
Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FUS Rabat 1+ goals
65%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
28%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
9%
Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
62%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
25%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
53%
Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FUS Rabat at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.88 · 120 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FUS Rabat attack 1.25 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.05

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.03 + FUS Rabat defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FUS Rabat scores more
37%
level
31%
Renaissance Berkane scores more
32%

FUS Rabat at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: FUS Rabat 0–1 Renaissance Berkane

Renaissance Berkane beat FUS Rabat 1-0 in Botola Pro on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.