Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Renaissance Berkane vs FUS Rabat — Cup 2020

Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
H. Regragui 120+7' (pen)
M. Bentarcha 120+6' (pen)
Y. El Fahli 120+4' (pen)
Y. Naiyim 120+3' (pen)
C. El Bahri 120+2' (pen)
Y. Zghoudi 2'
H. Hanouri 120+6' (pen)
M. Louadni 120+4' (pen), 90+7'
S. Moussadak 120+2' (pen)
M. Karnass 120+1' (pen)
7/9/2023CupCup · Semi-finalsComplexe Sportif de Fès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Renaissance Berkane47%
×Draw25%
FUS Rabat28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance Berkane
1.58
FUS Rabat
1.17

Renaissance Berkane creates 35% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane
2.67
FUS Rabat
2.00

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane
0.33
FUS Rabat
0.50

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par
FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

FUS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw
72%
Renaissance Berkane or FUS Rabat
75%
Draw or FUS Rabat
53%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
24%
FUS Rabat wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
79%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
47%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
21%
FUS Rabat 1+ goals
69%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
33%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
62%
FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 2.67 + FUS Rabat defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

FUS Rabat attack 2.00 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more
47%
level
25%
FUS Rabat scores more
28%

Renaissance Berkane at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Y. Zghoudi
90+7'
M. Louadni
120+1'
M. KarnassPenalty
120+1'
H. El MoussaouiMissed penalty
120+2'
S. MoussadakPenalty
120+2'
C. El BahriPenalty
120+3'
A. AzriMissed penalty
120+3'
Y. NaiyimPenalty
120+4'
M. LouadniPenalty
120+4'
Y. El FahliPenalty
120+5'
M. ElazMissed penalty
120+5'
I. DayoMissed penalty
120+6'
H. HanouriPenalty
120+6'
M. BentarchaPenalty
120+7'
A. QasmiMissed penalty
120+7'
H. RegraguiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Renaissance Berkane vs FUS Rabat

Renaissance Berkane and FUS Rabat drew 1-1 in Cup on July 9, 2023.

Goals: Y. Zghoudi (2'), M. Louadni (90+7', 120+4' pen), M. Karnass (120+1' pen), S. Moussadak (120+2' pen), C. El Bahri (120+2' pen), Y. Naiyim (120+3' pen), Y. El Fahli (120+4' pen), H. Hanouri (120+6' pen), M. Bentarcha (120+6' pen), H. Regragui (120+7' pen).

The match was played at Complexe Sportif de Fès in Fès.