Renaissance Berkane 3–2 FUS Rabat: Result & Stats

Renaissance Berkane

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FUS Rabat

M. Farehane 70'

B. El Bahraoui 59', 45+2'

N. Zerhouni 51' (pen)

E. El Bassil 45+1'

7/23/2021

Botola Pro · Round 29Stade Municipal de Berkane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Renaissance Berkane43%

×Draw28%

FUS Rabat29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Renaissance BerkaneExpected goals in this matchFUS Rabat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.01

Renaissance Berkane

1.28

FUS Rabat

1.01

Renaissance Berkane creates 27% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 119 away

1.54

creates per match

1.09

0.92

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane

1.54

FUS Rabat

1.09

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane

0.92

FUS Rabat

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

FUS Rabat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw

71%

Renaissance Berkane or FUS Rabat

72%

Draw or FUS Rabat

57%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+

19%

FUS Rabat wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals

72%

Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals

37%

Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals

14%

FUS Rabat 1+ goals

64%

FUS Rabat 2+ goals

27%

FUS Rabat 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)

59%

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.92 · 117 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.54 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.28

FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more

43%

level

28%

FUS Rabat scores more

29%

Renaissance Berkane at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

H. Regragui

45+1'

E. El Bassil

45+2'

B. El Bahraoui

50'

O. Namsaoui

51'

N. ZerhouniPenalty

59'

B. El Bahraoui

63'

N. Larbi

64'

65'

Y. Belammari← A. Louani

70'

M. Farehane

72'

H. Laachir← M. Iajour

72'

A. Traoré← B. El Helali

79'

R. Hajhouj← A. Sellak

79'

J. Kombous← K. Benarif

90+2'

D. Ouattara← B. El Bahraoui

Renaissance

FUS

16

3

26

5

21

6

▼

Louani

25

▼

Benarif

11

⚽

Zerhouni

19

Lahtimi

13

▼

Sellak

22

⚽

12

23

4

15

21

▼

Helali

17

Kess

8

Naji

29

⚽

Farehane

9

▼

Iajour

3

⚽2

▼

Bahraoui

24

Zghoudi

Manager: Juan Pedro

72'▲H. Laachir←▼M. Iajour

72'▲A. Traoré←▼B. El Helali

90+2'▲D. Ouattara←▼B. El Bahraoui

Renaissance Berkane substitutes

7Laachir19Traoré30Ouattara2Bentarcha5Naim22Ouaad26Chihab-Eddine40Bouroura99Baroudi

Manager: M. El Khalfi

65'▲Y. Belammari←▼A. Louani

79'▲R. Hajhouj←▼A. Sellak

79'▲J. Kombous←▼K. Benarif

FUS Rabat substitutes

17Belammari8Hajhouj14Kombous12Bellarabi23Kodjo27Khorsa29Razko32Cherrad46oubna

Match Recap: Renaissance Berkane vs FUS Rabat

Renaissance Berkane beat FUS Rabat 3-2 in Botola Pro on July 23, 2021.

Goals: E. El Bassil (45+1'), B. El Bahraoui (45+2', 59'), N. Zerhouni (51' pen), M. Farehane (70').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berkane in Berkane.

Renaissance Berkane vs FUS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Renaissance Berkane vs FUS Rabat