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Renaissance Berkane vs Difaa EL Jadida — Botola Pro 2025

Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
M. Chouiar 86'
Y. El Kaabi 52'
R. Da Costa 82'
3/8/2026Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 15Stade Municipal de Berkane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Renaissance Berkane51%
×Draw25%
Difaa EL Jadida24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Renaissance Berkane
1.56
Difaa EL Jadida
0.98

Renaissance Berkane creates 59% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 106 away

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane
1.56
Difaa EL Jadida
1.04

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane
0.92
Difaa EL Jadida
1.55

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par
Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw
76%
Renaissance Berkane or Difaa EL Jadida
75%
Draw or Difaa EL Jadida
49%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
26%
Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
79%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
46%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
21%
Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
62%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
26%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
68%
Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.92 · 115 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.56 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.04 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more
51%
level
25%
Difaa EL Jadida scores more
24%

Renaissance Berkane at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
Ayoub Khairi
41'
Y. El Kaabi← P. Bassene
52'
Y. El Kaabi↳ Y. Mehri
60'
Moctar El Hacen
65'
A. Idrissi← A. Ziani
65'
Y. Lamine← M. Mouchtanim
65'
A. Ennakouss← B. El Idrissi Bouzidi
76'
Moctar El Hacen
77'
Y. Labhiri← A. Khairi
77'
M. Hilali← M. El Hacen
82'
R. Da Costa↳ A. Ennakouss
83'
Romuald Dacosta
86'
M. Chouiar↳ R. Aabid
87'
O. Benchchaoui← R. Da Costa
90'
E. T. Boukhriss← I. Riahi

Statistics

RenaissanceDifaa
Discipline
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Renaissance Berkane vs Difaa EL Jadida

Renaissance Berkane beat Difaa EL Jadida 2-1 in Botola Pro on March 8, 2026.

Goals: Y. El Kaabi (52'), R. Da Costa (82'), M. Chouiar (86').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Berkane in Berkane.