Difaa EL Jadida 1–1 Renaissance Berkane

Difaa EL Jadida

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Renaissance Berkane

M. Sahd 52'

A. Khairi 24'

12/1/2024

Botola Pro · Round 12Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida33%

×Draw32%

Renaissance Berkane36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Difaa EL JadidaExpected goals in this matchRenaissance Berkane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.99

Difaa EL Jadida

0.94

Renaissance Berkane

0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 106 home / 118 away

1.01

creates per match

1.03

0.96

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida

1.01

Renaissance Berkane

1.03

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida

0.96

Renaissance Berkane

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

Renaissance Berkane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw

64%

Difaa EL Jadida or Renaissance Berkane

68%

Draw or Renaissance Berkane

67%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+

12%

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals

61%

Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals

24%

Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals

7%

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals

63%

Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals

26%

Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)

48%

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.96 · 106 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.01 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.03 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more

33%

level

32%

Renaissance Berkane scores more

36%

Renaissance Berkane at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

37'

43'

43'

45'

52'

55'

56'

O. Jerrari← S. Abaaziz

60'

Marouane Lemzaouri

70'

M. Sadil← H. El Moussaoui

70'

83'

85'

87'

88'

O. Benchaoui← K. Baba

88'

A. Bossu← M. Sahd

89'

S. Sidibe← Y. Labhiri

89'

I. Riahi← Y. Mehri

Statistics

DifaaRenaissance

Discipline

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

Match Recap: Difaa EL Jadida vs Renaissance Berkane

Difaa EL Jadida and Renaissance Berkane drew 1-1 in Botola Pro on December 1, 2024.

Goals: A. Khairi (24'), M. Sahd (52').

The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi in Mazghan.

Difaa EL Jadida vs Renaissance Berkane — Botola Pro 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: Difaa EL Jadida vs Renaissance Berkane