Renaissance Berkane 3–1 ASC Kara: Result & Stats

Renaissance Berkane

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

ASC Kara

O. Lamlioui 39', 14'

A. Khairi 18'

M. Tagba 55'

9/27/2025

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundStade Municipal de Berkane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Renaissance Berkane67%

×Draw22%

ASC Kara11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Renaissance BerkaneExpected goals in this matchASC Kara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.55

Renaissance Berkane

1.77

ASC Kara

0.55

Renaissance Berkane creates 222% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.86

creates per match

0.67

0.43

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane

1.86

ASC Kara

0.67

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane

0.43

ASC Kara

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

ASC Kara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

ASC Kara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw

89%

Renaissance Berkane or ASC Kara

78%

Draw or ASC Kara

33%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+

40%

ASC Kara wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals

83%

Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals

53%

Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals

26%

ASC Kara 1+ goals

42%

ASC Kara 2+ goals

11%

ASC Kara 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)

86%

ASC Kara (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

ASC Kara away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.86 + ASC Kara defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.77

ASC Kara attack 0.67 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more

67%

level

22%

ASC Kara scores more

11%

Renaissance Berkane at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

18'

39'

55'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff