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ASC Kara vs Renaissance Berkane — CAF Champions League 2019

ASC Kara
ASC Kara
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
A. Ouro-Ayeva 47'
O. Lamlioui 77'
9/21/2025CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundStade de Kégué

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

ASC Kara48%
×Draw34%
Renaissance Berkane18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASC Kara
1.05
Renaissance Berkane
0.52

ASC Kara creates 102% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

ASC Kara
0.67
Renaissance Berkane
0.71

allows per match

ASC Kara
0.33
Renaissance Berkane
1.43

finishing

ASC Kara+0.00on par
Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Under
  • Under79
  • Over21

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASC Kara ↓

Renaissance Berkane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–111%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
47%53%2.5
21%79%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

ASC Kara or draw
82%
ASC Kara or Renaissance Berkane
66%
Draw or Renaissance Berkane
52%

Winning margin

ASC Kara wins by 2+
20%
Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

ASC Kara 1+ goals
65%
ASC Kara 2+ goals
28%
ASC Kara 3+ goals
9%
Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
41%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
10%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

ASC Kara (draw refunded)
73%
Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASC Kara at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASC Kara attack 0.67 + Renaissance Berkane defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.05

Renaissance Berkane attack 0.71 + ASC Kara defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ASC Kara scores more
48%
level
34%
Renaissance Berkane scores more
18%

ASC Kara at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ASC Kara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
A. Ouro-Ayeva
77'
O. Lamlioui

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: ASC Kara 1–1 Renaissance Berkane

ASC Kara and Renaissance Berkane drew 1-1 in CAF Champions League on September 21, 2025.

Goals: A. Ouro-Ayeva (47'), O. Lamlioui (77').

The match was played at Stade de Kégué in Lomé.