Renaissance Berkane 2–1 Al Ahli Tripoli

Renaissance Berkane

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Al Ahli Tripoli

11/1/2025

CAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundStade Municipal de Berkane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Renaissance Berkane62%

×Draw25%

Al Ahli Tripoli12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Renaissance BerkaneExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Tripoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.52

Renaissance Berkane

1.53

Al Ahli Tripoli

0.52

Renaissance Berkane creates 194% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.86

creates per match

0.60

0.43

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Renaissance Berkane

1.86

Al Ahli Tripoli

0.60

allows per match

Renaissance Berkane

0.43

Al Ahli Tripoli

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Al Ahli Tripoli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Renaissance Berkane ↓

Al Ahli Tripoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Renaissance Berkane or draw

88%

Renaissance Berkane or Al Ahli Tripoli

75%

Draw or Al Ahli Tripoli

38%

Winning margin

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+

34%

Al Ahli Tripoli wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals

78%

Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals

45%

Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals

20%

Al Ahli Tripoli 1+ goals

41%

Al Ahli Tripoli 2+ goals

10%

Al Ahli Tripoli 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)

83%

Al Ahli Tripoli (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Renaissance Berkane at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Al Ahli Tripoli away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.86 + Al Ahli Tripoli defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.53

Al Ahli Tripoli attack 0.60 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Renaissance Berkane scores more

62%

level

25%

Al Ahli Tripoli scores more

12%

Renaissance Berkane at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Renaissance Berkane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff