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Al Ahli Tripoli vs Renaissance Berkane — CAF Champions League 2019

Al Ahli Tripoli
Al Ahli Tripoli
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Renaissance Berkane
Renaissance Berkane
10/26/2025CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 1st Preliminary RoundTripoli International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Al Ahli Tripoli66%
×Draw23%
Renaissance Berkane11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Tripoli
1.71
Renaissance Berkane
0.55

Al Ahli Tripoli creates 211% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Tripoli
2.00
Renaissance Berkane
0.71

allows per match

Al Ahli Tripoli
0.40
Renaissance Berkane
1.43

finishing

Al Ahli Tripoli+0.00on par
Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Tripoli ↓

Renaissance Berkane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Ahli Tripoli or draw
89%
Al Ahli Tripoli or Renaissance Berkane
77%
Draw or Renaissance Berkane
34%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Tripoli wins by 2+
38%
Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al Ahli Tripoli 1+ goals
82%
Al Ahli Tripoli 2+ goals
51%
Al Ahli Tripoli 3+ goals
24%
Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals
42%
Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals
11%
Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Tripoli (draw refunded)
85%
Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Tripoli at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Tripoli attack 2.00 + Renaissance Berkane defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.71

Renaissance Berkane attack 0.71 + Al Ahli Tripoli defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Al Ahli Tripoli scores more
66%
level
23%
Renaissance Berkane scores more
11%

Al Ahli Tripoli at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Al Ahli Tripoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Al Ahli Tripoli 1–1 Renaissance Berkane

Al Ahli Tripoli and Renaissance Berkane drew 1-1 in CAF Champions League on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Tripoli International Stadium in Tripoli.