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Remo vs Paysandu — Serie B 2026

Remo
Remo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Paysandu
Paysandu
Diogo Oliveira 73'
6/21/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 13Estadio Evandro Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Remo43%
×Draw30%
Paysandu27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Remo
1.19
Paysandu
0.88

Remo creates 35% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 64 away

creates per match

Remo
0.97
Paysandu
1.00

allows per match

Remo
0.76
Paysandu
1.42

finishing

Remo+0.00on par
Paysandu+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo ↓

Paysandu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Remo or draw
73%
Remo or Paysandu
70%
Draw or Paysandu
57%

Winning margin

Remo wins by 2+
19%
Paysandu wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Remo 1+ goals
70%
Remo 2+ goals
33%
Remo 3+ goals
12%
Paysandu 1+ goals
59%
Paysandu 2+ goals
22%
Paysandu 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Remo (draw refunded)
61%
Paysandu (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Paysandu away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo attack 0.97 + Paysandu defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Paysandu attack 1.00 + Remo defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Remo scores more
43%
level
30%
Paysandu scores more
27%

Remo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Remo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88
Marcelo RangelRemoRemo · G
8.2

Match Events

9'
Diogo Oliveira← J. Benitez
19'
Leandro Vilela
22'
Diogo Oliveira
29'
Luan Martins Gonçalves
40'
Marlon
46'
Pedro Costa← Marcelinho
50'
Pedro
63'
Matheus Davo← Giovanni Pavani
63'
Felipe Vizeu← Janderson
65'
Ronaldo Henrique← Matheus Vargas
65'
Vinicius Faria← Marlon Douglas
66'
Camutanga
73'
Diogo Oliveira
76'
Wendel← Rossi
76'
Anderson Leite←
79'
Dodo← Adailton
79'
Marrony← Camutanga
90+4'
Anderson Leite

Possession

65%Remo

Shots

16Remo

Pass accuracy

54%Remo

Statistics

RemoPaysandu
Overview
65%Possession35%
16Total Shots20
1.28Expected Goals (xG)1.94
7Corners9
6Fouls19
Shots
16Total Shots20
2On Target8
9Off Target9
5Blocked3
7Inside Box15
9Outside Box5
Passing
65%Possession35%
399Total Passes207
337Accurate Passes147
84%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls19
3Yellow Cards4

Serie B: Remo 0–1 Paysandu

Paysandu beat Remo 1-0 in Serie B on June 21, 2025.

Goals: Diogo Oliveira (73').

Remo controlled possession (65%) and registered 16 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estadio Evandro Almeida in Belem.