Paysandu 2–3 Remo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Paysandu

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Remo

Wendel 63'

Mauricio Garcez 52'

Diego Hernandez 90'

Pedro Costa 49'

Caio Vinicius 17'

10/14/2025

Serie B · Round 32Leonidas Sodre de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Paysandu39%

×Draw27%

Remo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PaysanduExpected goals in this matchRemo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.17

Paysandu

1.27

Remo

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 38 away

1.16

creates per match

1.18

1.16

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Paysandu

1.16

Remo

1.18

allows per match

Paysandu

1.16

Remo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paysandu+0.00on par

Remo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paysandu ↓

Remo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Paysandu or draw

66%

Paysandu or Remo

73%

Draw or Remo

61%

Winning margin

Paysandu wins by 2+

17%

Remo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Paysandu 1+ goals

72%

Paysandu 2+ goals

36%

Paysandu 3+ goals

14%

Remo 1+ goals

69%

Remo 2+ goals

33%

Remo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Paysandu (draw refunded)

53%

Remo (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paysandu at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Remo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paysandu attack 1.16 + Remo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Remo attack 1.18 + Paysandu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Paysandu scores more

39%

level

27%

Remo scores more

34%

Paysandu at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Paysandu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

34

Caio Vinicius

Remo · M

7.5

Match Events

17'

Caio Vinicius↳ M. N. Ferreira Berrondo

35'

Reverson← Bryan Borges

36'

Pedro Castro← Nathan Camargo

38'

Edílson Júnior

46'

Wendel← Petterson Novaes

49'

Pedro Costa↳ Pedro Rocha

52'

Mauricio Garcez↳ Edilson

57'

Marlon

63'

Wendel

72'

Jorge← Savio

72'

Nathan← P. Tachtsidis

72'

Diego Hernandez← Pedro Rocha

76'

Caio Vinícius

77'

Carlos Eduardo← Denner

79'

Maurício Garcez

82'

Janderson← M. N. Ferreira Berrondo

85'

André

88'

Vinicius Faria← Mauricio Garcez

89'

Marcelinho← Marlon Douglas

90+6'

Diego Hernández

90'

Diego Hernandez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PaysanduRemo

Overview

55%Possession45%

16Total Shots15

5Corners2

12Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots15

6On Target3

7Off Target6

3Blocked6

10Inside Box7

6Outside Box8

Passing

55%Possession45%

338Total Passes283

267Accurate Passes218

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls15

4Yellow Cards2

Paysandu 2 – 3 Remo

Remo beat Paysandu 3-2 in Serie B on October 14, 2025.

Goals: Caio Vinicius (17'), Pedro Costa (49'), Mauricio Garcez (52'), Wendel (63'), Diego Hernandez (90').

Paysandu controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 15.

The match was played at Leonidas Sodre de Castro in Belem.

Paysandu vs Remo — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Paysandu 2 – 3 Remo