Remo 1–1 Novorizontino: Result & Stats | Serie B

Remo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Novorizontino

Matheus Davo 10'

Robson 45'

7/18/2025

Serie B · Round 17Estadio Evandro Almeida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Remo31%

×Draw28%

Novorizontino41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RemoExpected goals in this matchNovorizontino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.26

Remo

1.07

Novorizontino

1.26

Novorizontino creates 18% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

0.92

creates per match

1.23

1.29

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Remo

0.92

Novorizontino

1.23

allows per match

Remo

1.29

Novorizontino

1.22

+0.75scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Remo+0.75scores more

Novorizontino-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo ↓

Novorizontino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Remo or draw

59%

Remo or Novorizontino

72%

Draw or Novorizontino

69%

Winning margin

Remo wins by 2+

12%

Novorizontino wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Remo 1+ goals

66%

Remo 2+ goals

29%

Remo 3+ goals

9%

Novorizontino 1+ goals

72%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

36%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Remo (draw refunded)

44%

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.29 · 6 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo attack 0.92 + Novorizontino defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Novorizontino attack 1.23 + Remo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Remo scores more

31%

level

28%

Novorizontino scores more

41%

Novorizontino at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Novorizontino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Camutanga

Remo · D

7.6

Match Events

10'

15'

29'

35'

45'

Robson↳ Fabio Matheus

46'

Luis Oyama← Jean Irmer

47'

Pedro Rocha

54'

Camutanga

54'

Regis← Jaderson

55'

Nathan Camargo← V. Cantillo

61'

Bruno Jose← Airton

61'

Leo Tocantins← Mayk

64'

Pablo Dyego← Robson

69'

Freitas← Caio Vinicius

69'

Maxwell← Janderson

83'

PH Gama← Camutanga

89'

Marlon← Fabio Matheus

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RemoNovorizontino

Overview

52%Possession48%

10Total Shots18

0.52Expected Goals (xG)1.72

5Corners7

10Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots18

2On Target4

6Off Target8

2Blocked6

5Inside Box13

5Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

459Total Passes411

393Accurate Passes340

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3