Novorizontino 1–1 Remo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Novorizontino

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Remo

Waguininho 9'

Mayk 61' (OG)

11/8/2025

Serie B · Round 36Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Novorizontino46%

×Draw27%

Remo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NovorizontinoExpected goals in this matchRemo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.02

Novorizontino

1.43

Remo

1.02

Novorizontino creates 40% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 38 away

1.48

creates per match

1.18

0.86

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Novorizontino

1.48

Remo

1.18

allows per match

Novorizontino

0.86

Remo

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novorizontino+0.00on par

Remo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino ↓

Remo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Novorizontino or draw

73%

Novorizontino or Remo

73%

Draw or Remo

54%

Winning margin

Novorizontino wins by 2+

23%

Remo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Novorizontino 1+ goals

76%

Novorizontino 2+ goals

42%

Novorizontino 3+ goals

17%

Remo 1+ goals

64%

Remo 2+ goals

27%

Remo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino (draw refunded)

63%

Remo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.86 · 85 matches

Remo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino attack 1.48 + Remo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

Remo attack 1.18 + Novorizontino defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Novorizontino scores more

46%

level

27%

Remo scores more

27%

Novorizontino at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Novorizontino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Tavinho

Novorizontino · M

7.2

Match Events

9'

Waguininho↳ Tavinho

11'

Nathan Camargo

15'

WaguininhoCard upgrade

16'

Waguininho

17'

Lucca

20'

Pedro Costa← Marcelinho

46'

Savio← Jorge

46'

Joao Pedro← Nathan Camargo

57'

Bruno Jose← Romulo

58'

Robson← Lucca

61'

MaykOwn goal

64'

Kayky Almeida

69'

Robson

70'

Nathan← P. Tachtsidis

70'

Janderson←

74'

Jordi

79'

Leo Tocantins← Tavinho

89'

Luís Oyama

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NovorizontinoRemo

Overview

29%Possession71%

8Total Shots7

0.69Expected Goals (xG)0.17

2Corners1

13Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots7

3On Target1

2Off Target5

3Blocked1

4Inside Box0

4Outside Box7

Passing

29%Possession71%

164Total Passes439

99Accurate Passes353

60%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2