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Remo vs Goias — Serie B 2026

Remo
Remo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Goias
Goias
Joao Pedro 84', 63'
Pedro Rocha 45'
Willean Lepo 7'
11/23/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 38Estadio Olimpico do Para

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Remo38%
×Draw31%
Goias31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Remo
1.06
Goias
0.94

Remo creates 13% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 86 away

creates per match

Remo
0.97
Goias
1.13

allows per match

Remo
0.76
Goias
1.15

finishing

Remo+0.00on par
Goias+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo ↓

Goias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Remo or draw
69%
Remo or Goias
69%
Draw or Goias
62%

Winning margin

Remo wins by 2+
15%
Goias wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Remo 1+ goals
65%
Remo 2+ goals
29%
Remo 3+ goals
9%
Goias 1+ goals
61%
Goias 2+ goals
24%
Goias 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Remo (draw refunded)
55%
Goias (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Goias away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo attack 0.97 + Goias defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Goias attack 1.13 + Remo defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Remo scores more
38%
level
31%
Goias scores more
31%

Remo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Remo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
Pedro RochaRemoRemo · M
9.2

Match Events

2'
Gonzalo Freitas
6'
Caio Vinícius
7'
Willean Lepo
45'
Pedro Rocha
46'
Giovanni Pavani← V. Cantillo
63'
Joao Pedro↳ Pedro Rocha
65'
Alan Stence← G. Freitas
66'
Pedrinho← Jaja
66'
Jean Carlos← Welliton
75'
Jorge← Savio
76'
Nathan Camargo← P. Tachtsidis
76'
Danilo Cunha← Willean Lepo
77'
Danilo Cunha da Silva
79'
Kayky Almeida
83'
Brayann← Juninho
84'
Joao Pedro↳ Pedro Rocha
86'
Janderson← Joao Pedro
87'
Reynaldo← Kayky Almeida

Possession

59%Remo

Shots

20Remo

Pass accuracy

52%Remo

Statistics

RemoGoias
Overview
59%Possession41%
20Total Shots12
8Corners5
12Fouls9
Shots
20Total Shots12
7On Target2
9Off Target7
4Blocked3
11Inside Box2
9Outside Box10
Passing
59%Possession41%
358Total Passes265
286Accurate Passes195
80%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls9
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Remo 3 – 1 Goias

Remo beat Goias 3-1 in Serie B on November 23, 2025.

Goals: Willean Lepo (7'), Pedro Rocha (45'), Joao Pedro (63', 84').

Remo controlled possession (59%) and registered 20 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico do Para in Belem.