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Goias vs Remo — Serie B 2026

Goias
Goias
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Remo
Remo
Anselmo Ramon 90'
Pedro Rocha 15'
7/30/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 19Estadio da Serrinha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Goias46%
×Draw27%
Remo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goias
1.43
Remo
1.03

Goias creates 39% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 38 away

creates per match

Goias
1.49
Remo
1.18

allows per match

Goias
0.89
Remo
1.37

finishing

Goias+0.00on par
Remo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goias ↓

Remo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Goias or draw
73%
Goias or Remo
73%
Draw or Remo
54%

Winning margin

Goias wins by 2+
22%
Remo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Goias 1+ goals
76%
Goias 2+ goals
42%
Goias 3+ goals
17%
Remo 1+ goals
64%
Remo 2+ goals
28%
Remo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Goias (draw refunded)
63%
Remo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goias at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.89 · 81 matches

Remo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goias attack 1.49 + Remo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

Remo attack 1.18 + Goias defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Goias scores more
46%
level
27%
Remo scores more
27%

Goias at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Goias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88
Marcelo RangelRemoRemo · G
8.3

Match Events

-5'
Thiago Rodrigues
-5'
Régis
15'
Pedro Rocha↳ Giovanni Pavani
24'
Marrony
45+1'
Anselmo RamonPenalty confirmed
46'
Welliton← Pedrinho
63'
Martin Benitez← G. Freitas
63'
Arthur Caike← Jaja
66'
Marcelo Rangel
70'
Nathan Camargo← Giovanni Pavani
70'
Janderson← Marrony
78'
Pedro Castro← V. Cantillo
78'
Dodo← Matheus Davo
84'
E. Garcia← Luiz Felipe
88'
F. Barcelo← Wellington Rato
88'
Reynaldo← Pedro Rocha
90'
Anselmo Ramon↳ Willean Lepo

Possession

65%Goias

Shots

28Goias

Pass accuracy

54%Goias

Statistics

GoiasRemo
Overview
65%Possession35%
28Total Shots7
11Corners3
9Fouls10
Shots
28Total Shots7
9On Target2
12Off Target5
7Blocked0
15Inside Box6
13Outside Box1
Passing
65%Possession35%
454Total Passes262
380Accurate Passes185
84%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
0Saves8
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Goias 1 – 1 Remo

Goias and Remo drew 1-1 in Serie B on July 30, 2025.

Goals: Pedro Rocha (15'), Anselmo Ramon (90').

Goias controlled possession (65%) and registered 28 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio da Serrinha in Goiania.