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Remo vs Cuiaba — Serie B 2026

Remo
Remo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cuiaba
Cuiaba
7/5/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 15Estadio Olimpico do Para

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Remo31%
×Draw31%
Cuiaba38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Remo
0.91
Cuiaba
1.04

Cuiaba creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Remo
0.92
Cuiaba
0.79

allows per match

Remo
1.29
Cuiaba
0.90

finishing

Remo+0.75scores more
Cuiaba-0.22scores less

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo ↓

Cuiaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Remo or draw
62%
Remo or Cuiaba
69%
Draw or Cuiaba
69%

Winning margin

Remo wins by 2+
11%
Cuiaba wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Remo 1+ goals
60%
Remo 2+ goals
23%
Remo 3+ goals
6%
Cuiaba 1+ goals
65%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
28%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Remo (draw refunded)
45%
Cuiaba (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.29 · 6 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.90 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo attack 0.92 + Cuiaba defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.91

Cuiaba attack 0.79 + Remo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Remo scores more
31%
level
31%
Cuiaba scores more
38%

Cuiaba at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cuiaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
Mateus PasinatoCuiabaCuiaba · G
8.2

Match Events

19'
Kayky Almeida← Reynaldo
20'
Lucas Mineiro
21'
Alan Empereur
39'
Bruno Alves
41'
Pedro Castro
45+2'
Marcelo Henrique
46'
Felipe Vizeu← Marrony
61'
Alisson Safira
64'
Giovanni Pavani← Pedro Castro
64'
Adailton← Jaderson
64'
Edu← Alisson Safira
70'
Leonardo Ataide← Marcelo Henrique
79'
Pedro Costa← Marcelinho
82'
Nathan Pelae← Matheusinho
82'
De Lucca← Derik Lacerda
82'
Juan Christian← Lucas Mineiro
83'
Calebe Costa
83'
Patrick De Lucca
86'
Giovanni Confreste

Possession

62%Remo

Shots

10Remo

Pass accuracy

53%Remo

Statistics

RemoCuiaba
Overview
62%Possession38%
10Total Shots8
0.63Expected Goals (xG)0.36
7Corners5
8Fouls16
Shots
10Total Shots8
4On Target3
4Off Target3
2Blocked2
5Inside Box5
5Outside Box3
Passing
62%Possession38%
423Total Passes264
355Accurate Passes199
84%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls16
2Yellow Cards7
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Remo vs Cuiaba

Remo and Cuiaba drew 0-0 in Serie B on July 5, 2025.

Remo controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico do Para in Belem.