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Remo vs Cuiaba — Serie C 2018

Remo
Remo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cuiaba
Cuiaba
Mikael 20'
Elias 67'
5/28/2017Serie CSerie C · Round 3Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença (Belém, Pará)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Remo45%
×Draw26%
Cuiaba29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Remo
1.50
Cuiaba
1.15

Remo creates 30% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 14 away

creates per match

Remo
1.30
Cuiaba
1.57

allows per match

Remo
0.73
Cuiaba
1.71

finishing

Remo+0.00on par
Cuiaba+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Remo ↓

Cuiaba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Remo or draw
71%
Remo or Cuiaba
74%
Draw or Cuiaba
55%

Winning margin

Remo wins by 2+
22%
Cuiaba wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Remo 1+ goals
78%
Remo 2+ goals
44%
Remo 3+ goals
19%
Cuiaba 1+ goals
68%
Cuiaba 2+ goals
32%
Cuiaba 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Remo (draw refunded)
61%
Cuiaba (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Remo at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.73 · 63 matches

Cuiaba away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Remo attack 1.30 + Cuiaba defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cuiaba attack 1.57 + Remo defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Remo scores more
45%
level
26%
Cuiaba scores more
29%

Remo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Remo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Mikael
67'
Elias

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie C: Remo 1–1 Cuiaba

Remo and Cuiaba drew 1-1 in Serie C on May 28, 2017.

Goals: Mikael (20'), Elias (67').

The match was played at Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença (Belém, Pará).